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The Nasdaq Composite displayed resilience with its fifth successive day of gains, despite encountering its most substantial monthly decline in 2023. Closing at 14,034.97, the tech-centric index rose by 0.11% on Thursday. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stumbled by 0.48%, finishing at 34,721.91, and the S&P 500 experienced a minor setback of 0.16%, concluding at 4,507.66.
Although a series of positive sessions managed to alleviate some of the monthly losses for the S&P 500 and the Dow, the broader market index reported a 1.77% decrease, while the Nasdaq endured a 2.17% loss during August. The Dow, composed of 30 stocks, encountered a significant drop of 2.36%. Traders also diligently examined fresh U.S. inflation data, particularly the core personal consumption expenditures index, which matched economists’ projections by increasing 0.2% month over month in July and 4.2% year over year. This index holds particular importance as a gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.
Some analysts highlighted the interplay between equities and bonds, noting that declining U.S. Treasury yields remain pivotal for potential near-term stock market growth. Looking ahead, investors are eyeing the upcoming non-farm payroll data release, hoping for signs of a meaningful economic slowdown that could influence the central bank’s stance on benchmark interest rate hikes.
Data by Bloomberg
On Thursday, most sectors experienced a slight decline, with the overall market showing a decrease of 0.16%. However, there were a few areas of growth, notably Consumer Discretionary, which saw a rise of 0.51%, and Information Technology, which increased by 0.37%. Energy and Communication Services also recorded modest gains of 0.15% and 0.11% respectively. On the other hand, sectors like Health Care, Utilities, and Real Estate faced notable losses, with Health Care declining the most at 1.21%.
The dollar index rose 0.45% on Thursday, supported by better US data and one ECB hawk taking notice of the region’s economic headwinds. US consumer spending surged 8% in July, up from 6% in June, and June was revised higher. Jobless claims remained in their recent range, and the August Chicago PMI rebounded to 48.7.
The euro fell 0.7% against the dollar after Wednesday and Thursday’s recovery highs were rejected by the 30-day moving average (DMA) and other resistance levels. Sterling also fell 0.4% after it ran into sellers at its 30-DMA and cloud base. USD/JPY fell 0.57%, putting EUR/JPY down a whopping 1.26%, as relatively static Japanese government bond (JGB) yields contrasted with the 7.8 basis point (bp) drop in German bund yields.
The main event on Friday is the US employment report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to be 170,000, down from 187,000 in July. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% from July, and the jobless rate is forecast to remain near 50-year lows at 3.5%. August ISM manufacturing is forecast at 47.0, down from July’s 46.4. More important will be ISM services due out on September 6.
| Currency | Data | Time (GMT + 8) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHF | Consumer Price Index m/m | 14:30 | 0.2% |
| CAD | Gross Domestic Product m/m | 20:30 | -0.2% |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 20:30 | 0.3% |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 20:30 | 169K |
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 20:30 | 3.5% |
| USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 22:00 | 46.9 |
Make informed decisions with the most up-to-date and reliable financial data, exclusively provided by vtmarkets.com.
