Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
As the US dollar came under bearish pressure amid the retreating US bond yields on Monday, the pair XAU/USD regained upside momentum and refreshed its daily high near the $1,790 level during the US trading session. XAU/USD is trading at 1788.91 at the time of writing, rising 0.74% daily. The risk-on flows have returned at the start of the week after market reaction to the upbeat US jobs data fades. Investors are now waiting for the latest US consumer inflation figures, which would influence Fed rate hike expectations and play a key role in driving the near-term USD demand. Markets are now pricing in a nearly 70% probability of a 75 basis points rate increase in September.
For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator is 59 figures as of writing, suggesting the pair’s bullish outlook in the near term as the RSI indicator keeps rising. For the Bollinger Bands, the price preserved its upside traction and crossed its moving average into positive territory, therefore a continuation of the upside trend could be expected. In conclusion, we think the market will be bullish as the pair is heading to test the 1794 resistance line. A break above that level might favour the bull and open the door for additional gains in the near term.
Resistance: 1794, 1811, 1831
Support: 1769, 1756, 1735
The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Monday, regaining upside momentum and rebounded from the 1.015 area that it touched last Friday amid a better market mood. The pair is now trading at 1.02167, posting a 0.36% gain daily. EUR/USD stays in the positive territory amid a weaker US dollar across the board, as the retreating US Treasury bond yields and firmer equities both exerted bearish pressure on the safe-haven greenback. Investors are now accessing the better-than-expected US job data, which increases the speculation of a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed in the next months. The probability of a 75 bps rate hike next month is now at nearly 68%. For the Euro, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index came in at -25.2 in August, which failed to ease off recession fears in the Eurozone.
For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator is 54 figures as of writing, suggesting that the upside is more favoured as the RSI stays above the mid-line. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price preserved its upside traction and climbed above the moving average, therefore the bullish momentum should persist. In conclusion, we think the market will be bullish as the pair is heading to test the 1.0246 resistance line. A break above that level would skew the risk to the upside.
Resistance: 1.0246, 1.0287, 1.0438
Support: 1.0150, 1.0111, 0.9988
The GBP/USD pair advanced on Monday, extending its recovery and touching a daily top above the 1.213 mark in the early US session amid the risk-positive market atmosphere. At the time of writing, the cable stays in positive territory with a 0.40% gain for the day. The US dollar struggled to capitalize on Friday’s upbeat NFP report as the falling US Treasury bond yields made it difficult to find demand. The market focus now shifts to the US CPI data this Wednesday, which might provide fresh impetus for the GBP/USD pair. For the British pound, the BoE’s gloomy economic outlook continues to act as a headwind for the pair. Meanwhile, the policy gap between the Fed and BoE could continue to widen and undermine the cable amid the hawkish stance of the Fed’s policy tightening outlook.
For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator is 47 figures as of writing, suggesting that the downside is preserving strength as the RSI keeps heading south. For the Bollinger Bands, the price witnessed fresh selling and failed to climb above the moving average, therefore some downside tractions can be expected. In conclusion, we think the market will be slightly bearish as long as the 1.2154 resistance line holds. On the upside, technical recovery could stretch higher toward 1.2198 if the pair starts using that level as support.
Resistance: 1.2154, 1.2198, 1.2277
Support: 1.2027, 1.1940, 1.1830
