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Weekly Market Analysis: 28 February 2022


This week, the focus will still be on the tension between Russia and Ukraine after the EU, the US, and several allies agreed to cut Russian banks from Swift. 

But we also realize that there is a lot of interest if this happens. There will be a disruption in trade in Europe because of the difficulty surrounding currency transactions.

In addition, there was an attempt at talks between the two parties after several threats from both sides. This requires us to see further developments.

Apart from that, there is some news to watch out for this week. Interest rate announcements from Canada and Australia, with potential hikes in Canada. 

Likewise, there is a speaker from Jerome Powell where the market is waiting for the possibility that the Fed chair will discuss growing interest rates.

Of course, the data that has a big impact must be considered in the employment data in the US, with the initial prediction that Non-Farm will slow down a bit.

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Source : Forex Factory | GMT + 8

USD Index

On the USD Index, we can see that the market is focused on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, safe-haven being the best commodity at the moment.

USD gets a gap at the market opening, which causes the potential for strengthening to look stronger. However, last month’s high (97.42 on 28 January 2022) could be the key to whether the price will pursue higher levels in the 97.68 – 97.72 area.

From a smaller timeframe, we can see that the gap, which is quite large, is likely to be closed first before the price will strengthen again to the 97.35 – 97.42 area.

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Gold is also affected by tensions between Russia and Ukraine; therefore, the safe-haven status of gold is very important to get good results.

Gold seems to have a gap at the beginning of the week and opened right at the resistance area with a slight upward spike before re-entering the 1904-1916 area.

The potential movement can be seen in the H4 timeframe, where the price is likely to chase higher prices with the main target remaining in the area of 1953 – 1960.

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We, from the VT Academy research team, still don’t expect the war to continue and expect traders to keep their trading positions.