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EUR/USD Rises to Monthly High Despite US Dollar Recovery and Hawkish FOMC; Focus Shifts to ECB Meeting and US Data
The EUR/USD pair achieved its highest daily close in a month above 1.0800, disregarding the US Dollar’s rebound following the hawkish stance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Market attention now turns towards the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and crucial US economic data, which gain significance in light of Fed Chair Powell’s indication that the July meeting will be a “live” session. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with the language used in the statement and President Lagarde’s comments during the press conference holding key implications for the Euro’s performance. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained ground after the FOMC meeting, as the central bank hinted at future rate hikes and projected additional tightening measures by year-end. Market sentiment will likely be influenced by the Fed’s decision and forthcoming US economic indicators, including Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Index.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair experienced an upward movement on Wednesday and was able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. It then slowly moved lower, targeting the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, lower than the previous higher movement, indicating that the EUR/USD might be returning to a neutral stance.
Resistance: 1.0847, 1.0893
Support: 1.0757, 1.0721
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD Holds Steady Amidst Dovish Fed Outlook, Focusing on Monetary Policy Announcement and Dot Plot
XAU/USD maintains modest gains within the $1,950 price range as investor sentiment improves following US inflation data supporting a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose slower than expected in May, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted, indicating downward pressure on prices and validating the Fed’s previous monetary policy measures. Although concerns persist over a tight labor market potentially driving inflation higher, policymakers have anticipated a more dovish approach and a meeting-by-meeting decision. The market expects the Fed to hold its current stance, with the upcoming monetary policy announcement, dot plot release, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference being the focal points. Market optimism regarding a conservative Fed aiding the economy in avoiding a recession has led investors to seek high-yielding assets, temporarily overshadowing XAU/USD. However, if the Fed deviates from market expectations, significant price volatility can be anticipated, with XAU/USD responding to fluctuations in the broader strength or weakness of the US Dollar.
According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair is moving lower creating a push to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, indicating that the XAU/USD is still in a bearish condition.
Resistance: $1,955, $1,972
Support: $1,932, $1,913
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