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Market Focus: All eyes US Jobs Data and RBA and RBNZ Interest Rate Announcements


What happened in the market last week?

  • The market was relatively quiet in terms of news which improved the risk mood.
  • The Japanese Yen weakened as expected.
  • Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the UK banking system is resilient and well-funded.
  • The inflation rate in the UK grew to 10.4% in Feb, and the BoE Governor said they would use interest rate hikes to bring it down to the target of 2%.
  • GBP remained strong, reaching highs of 1.2400 against USD.
  • In the US, investors had little to focus on.
  • Fed member Michael Barr settled the markets by saying the US banking system is well-supported, and the SVB collapse was a mismanagement issue.
  • CORE PCE Price Index in the US came in lower than estimates at 0.3%, which means the Fed can continue to hike rates at a slower pace.

Last Week Market Pair Changes (All data is taken from the MT4 VT Markets)

The USD experienced a slight decrease in value last week because market sentiment was in a risk-on mood in a quiet week.

  • USOUSD rise as Iraqi supply disruption continues, USOUSD was set for an 8.67%  weekly gain.
  • Major US stock indexes closed higher on Friday, with DJ30 rising 3.29% and NAS100 increasing 3.10% for the week.
  • EURUSD rose by 0.62%, while GBPUSD increased by 0.87%.
  • Gold fell by 0.51% for the week.
  • The USDX decreased by 0.38%.
  • The USDJPY rose by 1.76% due to the risk-on sentiment that dominated the week.

What to focus on this week?

This week marks the start of the second quarter in 2023, and it’s lined up with some major events. Keep your eyes on news from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on their imminent interest rate announcements. Also, the eagerly-anticipated US Jobs report is set to be released this week. It’s a big week all around, with headlines and developments that you won’t want to miss. 

Here are key events to watch out for:

3 April 2023 | Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index

Switzerland’s CPI increased by 0.70% in February 2023 from the previous month.

For March, analysts expect the reading to increase by 0.5%

3 April 2023 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 47.7 in February 2023 from 47.4 in January.

For March, analysts expect it to increase to 49.

4 April 2023 | Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement

The RBA raised its cash rate by 25bps to 3.60% at its March 2023 meeting, the tenth rate hike since May last year.

Analysts expect the central bank to raise another 25bps to 3.85% at this month’s meeting.

5 April 2023 | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate during its first meeting of the year by 50bps to 4.75%, the highest since January 2009.

For this month, analysts expect RBNZ to increase its interest rates by 25bps to 5%.

5 April 2023 | US ADP Non-farm Employment Change

US private businesses unexpectedly created 242,000 jobs in February 2023, well above an upwardly revised 119,000 in January.

For March 2023, analysts expect that ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will add 200,000 jobs. “

5 April 2023 | US ISM Services PMI

The US ISM Services PMI was at 55.1 in February 2023, slightly lower from 55.2 in January.

For March, analysts expect the index to be at 54.

6 April 2023 | Canada Employment Change

The Canadian economy created 21,800 jobs in February 2023, while the unemployment rate stood at 5%. This was close to the record-low of 4.9% observed in June and July 2022.

For March 2023, analysts expect that Canada will add 10,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected at 5.4%

7 April 2023 | US Employment Change

The US economy unexpectedly created 311,000 jobs in February 2023, following a downwardly revised 504,000 in January. The country’s unemployment rate edged up to 3.6% in February 2023, up from a 50-year low of 3.4% seen in January 2023.

For March 2023, analysts expect the US to add 240,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6%.

Make informed decisions with the most up-to-date and reliable financial data, exclusively provided by vtmarkets.com.