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Daily Technical Insights 30 March 2023


EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Based on the early trading session on Wednesday, the EURUSD price has been fluctuating within a narrow range of around 1.0850. However, after the release of the unexpected rising of US data Pending Home Sales (MoM) in February, the EURUSD dropped to 1.0830, which is close to the previous low on Tuesday at 1.08177. The macroeconomic calendar has been sparse in terms of data releases. The European Central Bank had a non-monetary policy meeting, which ended without any statement as usual. ECB officials have been supporting the case of further rate hikes, but there are different views on the banking situation.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, it appears that the bulls are still in control. Technical indicators are above their midlines with modest upward slopes, and the pair is comfortably consolidating above its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0800. A test of the Fibonacci support level is possible if there is a definite downward extension below the 20 SMA, although further losses are unlikely in the immediate future.

Resistance levels: 1.0903, 1.0990

Support levels: 1.0748, 1.0669

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The precious metals market has seen some consolidation this week after significant gains since the start of March. The price of gold (XAU/USD) rose above $1,950 and peaked around the $2,000 resistance level, while the silver price (XAG/USD) has been showing a steady uptrend and is currently trading above $23 with more room for growth before reaching its year-to-date high in January. As of typing this, the gold price is trading at $1,963 with an RSI of 59.83. Gold trading has been volatile in the past two weeks due to events such as banking bankruptcies and high-stakes central bank meetings. However, investors are now looking forward to the next Federal Reserve meeting in May and keeping an eye on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index release on Friday and the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index releases.

Although gold is still below its record highs, it has started a short-term consolidation period. According to economists at Credit Suisse, a sustained move above $2,000 is necessary to reinvigorate upward pressure. If gold fails to defend its 55-day moving average, there could be further weakness toward the recent range low at $1,805 before reaching the crucial 200-day moving average.

Resistance: 1980, 2003

Support: 1934, 1914