Wall Street’s Fear Gauge Plummets as Markets Rally

　　

Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, saw its largest two-day plunge since May as the recent financial turmoil eased, resulting in a rebound of stocks. This surge in banks and assurances from authorities has restored a sense of order to the market for the time being. As the Federal Reserve decision approaches, traders are anticipating another 25 basis-point hikes, indicating officials’ commitment to battling inflation and maintaining financial stability. The uncertainty over the Fed’s decision is currently among the highest since the pandemic sparked emergency rate cuts in 2020. Policymakers are also expected to provide updated rate projections for the first time since December, which will offer guidance on whether additional hikes can be expected this year.

In the benchmark, the S&P 500 topped 4,000 and extended its advance above the key 200-day moving average. The Cboe Volatility Index, which briefly exceeded 30 last week for the first time since October, plummeted to around 21. This led to every stock in a measure of US financial heavyweights climbing, with First Republic Bank surging almost 30% due to optimism over a new plan under discussion to aid the regional lender. Furthermore, seven out of eleven sectors stayed in positive territory, indicating an improvement in market risk sentiment.

For investors, the recent rally in the market and decline in the VIX could signal a return to a more stable investing environment. However, it is important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and investors should remain vigilant in monitoring their portfolios. As the Fed’s decision approaches, investors should be prepared for potential market volatility. Additionally, it may be wise to consider diversifying portfolios to mitigate potential risks.

Main Pairs Movement

On Tuesday, the dollar pared earlier losses as traders considered the possibility that banking stress could prevent the Federal Reserve and Bank of England from hiking interest rates much further or at all later in the week. The DXY index edged lower with 0.07% daily losses, experiencing some selling during the European trading session before climbing to the 103.2 level in the middle of the American trading hour.

Meanwhile, the GBPUSD dropped with 0.5% losses on a daily basis, marking the first negative day in consecutive four days. Mixed concerns over the Brexit deal’s acceptance and hawkish Fed bets teased sellers, leading to a drop to a daily low of 1.2179 level in early US trading hours, before recovering to the 1.2220 level. In contrast, the EURUSD surged to a level above 1.0780 and closed at 1.077 with a 0.44% daily gain on Tuesday.

However, gold slumped with 1.96% losses on a daily basis, as investors remained anxious ahead of the key Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. The market mood is fragile, and any incident could trigger wild market reactions. The XAUUSD faced strong corrective pullback pressure for the day, falling to a daily low of the $1935 mark during the middle of the American trading hour.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Fed’s decision, as it could have a significant impact on market conditions. As always, it is essential for investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor their portfolios to mitigate potential risks.

Economic Data

Currency	Data	Time (GMT + 8)	Forecast
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Feb)	15:00	9.9%
EUR	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	16:45
USD	Crude Oil Inventories	22:30	-1.448M
BRL	BCB Copom Meeting Minutes	23:00