Market focus: FOMC meeting minutes, RBNZ rate statement, and Canada CPI

　　

What happened in the market last week?

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 % in January.  
• US Inflation turned higher to 6.4% at the start of 2023.
• US Retail Sales jumped 3%.
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7%.
• Fed Chairman Powell had commented on being in a deflationary environment by remaining flexible. 

Source: VT Markes MT4 

Last Week Market Pair Changes 

(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)

Last week, the USDX received support from strong data released by the US, while oil prices decreased despite rising demand.

• The USDJPY rose by 2.22%.
• The USD Index rose by 0.36%.
• The EURUSD was higher by 0.13%.
• The GBPUSD was lower by 0.18%
• US Indices got some mixed week as the DJ30 ended the week lower by 0.30%, while NAS100 was higher by 0.17%. 
• Gold fell by 1.23%.
• USOUSD (WTI) dropped by 4.44%.

Date	Country	Events	Forecast	Previous
Mon, Feb 20
Tue, Feb 21	UK	Flash Manufacturing PMI	47.5	47
	UK	Flash Services PMI	49.2	48.7
	Canada	CPI m/m		-0.60%
	Canada	Median CPI y/y		5.00%
	Canada	Trimmed CPI y/y		5.30%
	US	Flash Services PMI	47.3	46.8
Wed, Feb 22	Australia	Wage Price Index q/q	1.00%	1.00%
	New Zealand	Official Cash Rate	4.75%	4.25%
	New Zealand	RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
	New Zealand	RBNZ Rate Statement
	New Zealand	RBNZ Press Conference
Thu, Feb 23	US	FOMC Meeting Minutes
	US	Prelim GDP q/q	2.90%	2.90%
Fri, Feb 24	US	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.40%	0.30%

Source: VT Markets Economic Calendar

What to focus on this week?

After a packed inflation data release from last week, we will have FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMI data, Prelim GDP, and PCE Price Index to be released from the US. We also will have inflation data from Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate and Monetary Policy Statement. 

21 February 2023 | UK and US Flash Services PMI

UK Flash Services PMI was down to 48.7 in January 2023 from 49.9 in December. Meanwhile, US Flash Services PMI went up to 46.8 in January 2023 from December’s 44.7.

Analysts expect UK Flash Services PMI to be higher at 49.3 and US Flash Services PMI at 47.4 in February 2023.

21 February 2023 | UK Flash Manufacturing PMI

UK Flash Manufacturing PMI went up to 47.0 in January 2023 from December’s 31-month low of 45.3. 

Analysts forecast UK Flash Manufacturing PMI to go up to 47.5.

21 February 2023 | Canada Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index in Canada decreased by 0.6% in December 2022 over the previous month.

For January 2023, analysts expect Canada’s CPI to increase by 0.2%.

22 February 2023 | Australia Wage Price Index

Australia’s seasonally adjusted wage price index increased by 3.1% year-on-year in Q3 2022, accelerating from a 2.6% gain in Q2. This was the highest reading since Q1 2013.

Analysts expect the result to increase by 3.6% year-on-year in Q4 2022.

22 February 2023 | RBNZ Monetary Policy and Rate Statement

In November 2022, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised their interest rate by 75bps to 4.25% from a previous 3.5% rate. 

Analysts expect RBNZ to raise their interest rate by another 50bps to 4.75% this month.

23 February 2023 | FOMC Meeting Minutes

In February 2023, the US Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate target range by 25bps to 4.5%-4.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation could be controlled with their tools, and disinflation has started. 

Despite the strong January jobs report, Powell’s comments implied no shift in the Fed’s future rate increase strategy.

24 February 2023 | Core PCE Price Index

Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, went up by 0.3% month-on-month in December 2022, compared to a 0.2% increase in the prior month.

Analysts expect the US Core PCE Price Index to increase by 0.2% this month.

Make informed decisions with the most up-to-date and reliable financial data, exclusively provided by vtmarkets.com.