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Market Focus: All eyes on the US, UK and Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index releases


What happened in the market last week?

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased their interest rates from 3.10% to 3.35%. 
  • Australia’s inflation has risen, and the RBA is seeking to raise rates without hurting homes and businesses.
  • Governor Macklem halted interest rate hikes to reduce household debt.
  • Employment surged from 104k to 150k, exceeding estimates by ten times. Employment growth may increase inflation.
  • Powell said the NFP numbers stunned him. The Fed kept rates flexible after US employment exceeded expectations.
  • These job statistics could drive the Fed to hike longer despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent deflationary comments.
VT Markets MT4 chart

Last Week Market Pair Changes

Last week, markets were in slow volatility as there was no high-impact data from the US. Meanwhile, oil jumped the highest for the week as Russia announced their production cut. 

  • The USD Index rose by 0.53%.
  • The EURUSD fell by 0.98%.
  • The USDJPY dropped by 0.78%.
  • The GBPUSD was higher by 0.21%.
  • The DJ30 ended the week at a similar level as last week, only rising by 0.01%, while the NAS100 declined by 1.81%. 
  • Gold rose by 0.13%.
  • USOUSD (WTI) jumped by 8.82%.

(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)

Weekly Economic Calendar

(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)

What to focus on this week?

This week’s focus will be on inflation data from different countries. The US, UK, and Switzerland will release their CPI data. We will also have employment condition in Australia and US retail sales and PPI data. 

Here are some key events for this week:

13 February 2023 | Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) witnessed a drop of 0.20% in December 2022 compared to November, which also showed that the annual inflation rate in Switzerland fell to 2.8% year-on-year in December 2022, the lowest reading since April 2022.

Analysts predict a 0.1% decrease in Switzerland’s CPI in January 2023, bringing the annual inflation to 2.7%.

14 February 2023 | UK Claimant Count Change

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 19,700 in December 2022, following a 16,100 rise in November.

For January, analysts expect lower figures at 12,000.

14 February 2023 | US Consumer Price Index m/m

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month in December 2022, the first decrease since May 2020. This resulted in a slowdown of the annual inflation rate to 6.5%, the lowest since October 2021 and the 6th consecutive month of slowing inflation. 

Analysts forecast a slight increase in the US CPI in January 2023, with 0.4% month-on-month growth and an expected annual inflation rate of 6.3%. 

15 February 2023 | UK Consumer Price Index

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 10.5% in December 2022 from 10.7% in November. It marks the second consecutive month of slowing inflation and the lowest in three months after a peak of 11.1% in October.

Analysts expect the UK annual inflation rate will slow down to 10.3% this month.

15 February 2023 | US Retail Sales

Retail sales in the US declined 1.1% month-on-month in December 2022, following an upwardly revised 1% drop in November.

Analysts expect retail sales in the US will be higher at 0.6% this month.

15 February 2023 | US Empire State Manufacturing Index

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -32.9 in January 2023, the lowest reading since May 2020. The reading pointed to the fifth worst contraction ever in business activity in the NY state.

For February, analysts expect that the reading will be at -19.

16 February 2023 | US Produce Price Index

Producer prices in the US dropped 0.5% from a month earlier in December 2022, following a revised 0.2% increase in November. It was the largest monthly decline since April 2020, indicating that inflationary pressure in the world’s largest economy is cooling.

For January 2023, analysts expect US PPI to drop by another 0.4%.

Make informed decisions with the most up-to-date and reliable financial data, exclusively provided by vtmarkets.com.