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Last Week Market Pair Changes
Last week, markets were affected by the US Retail Sales and PPI data, which showed worse-than-expected figures. These numbers indicate a slowdown in the US economy, which weighs the US dollar.
(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
This week, we will have some high-impact data from outside the US. We will have the Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI from the EU, UK, and the US. While New Zealand and Australia will release their CPI data which will show us the inflation condition in both countries. Bank of Canada will release their Monetary Policy report, meanwhile, in the US we will have the Advance GDP and Core PCE Price Index.
Here are this week’s key important events:
24 January 2023 | EU, UK and US Flash Services PMI
The Flash Services PMI readings for December 2022 in the EU and the UK were 49.8 and 49.9, respectively, higher than the previous month. Meanwhile, the US Flash Services PMI was 44.7 in the same month, much lower than its previous month.
Our analysts expect that the Flash Services PMI in the EU, UK, and US will be slightly higher in January.
24 January 2023 | Flash Manufacturing PMI
The Flash Manufacturing PMI in the EU was 47.8 in December 2022, higher than the previous month. The UK reading came at 45.3, and the US at 46.2, lower than the previous month.
Analysts forecast that the Flash Manufacturing PMI in the EU and UK will be slightly higher. On the other hand, they expect the US reading to be slightly lower.
25 January 2023 | New Zealand and Australia Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index in Australia increased by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2022, while in New Zealand, it increased by 2.2% compared to the 2nd quarter.
Analysts expect that for the last quarter of 2022, New Zealand CPI will decrease by 1.9% while Australia by 1.5%.
25 January 2023 | Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Statement
The Bank of Canada increased the target for its overnight rate by 50bps to 4.25% in its last 2022 meeting. Policymakers added they were also continuing their policy of quantitative tightening and noted that economic growth remains strong. However, it is expected to stall through the end of this year and the first half of 2023.
Analysts expect that for this meeting, BoC will raise their interest rates by 25bps to 4.5%.
26 January 2023 | US Quarterly Gross Domestic Products (Adv)
The US economy grew an annualized 3.2% in Q3 2022, better than 2.9% in the second estimate, rebounding from two straight quarters of contraction.
Analysts have various expectations for Q4. They say the GDP reading will decrease by 1.2% to 2.8%.
27 January 2023 | US Quarterly Core PCE Price Index
Core PCE Prices in the US rose 4.7% on quarter in Q3 2022, the same as in the previous quarter.
Analysts expect the Core PCE Prices will be lower by 3.9% for the last quarter of 2022.
Last week, gold kept moving higher as expected but could not reach our resistance levels. Gold closes the week higher at $1,926.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is still strongly moving inside the overbought level with NO potential of crossing lower. The Gold price is moving above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at $1,946 and $1,973, with the support levels at $1,910 and $1,880.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is moving just outside the overbought level. Price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at $1,943 and $1,970, with the support levels at $1,895 and $1,866.
Conclusion: This week, we are going to have some global data outside the US, which may affect the gold from the technical aspects. We expect gold to start the week lower before eventually reaching our resistance levels at $1,943 and $1,946.
Last week, EURUSD reached our support and resistance level as expected. EURUSD ends the week higher at 1.0855.
On our weekly timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is still moving inside the overbought level. The price continues to trade below the 200-period moving average and above the 20 and 50-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.09163 and 1.1136, with the support levels at 1.0754 and 1.05544.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving in the middle with NO clear direction. Price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 1.0900 and 1.971, while the support levels are at 1.0774 and 1.0645.
Conclusion: This week, we will have some PMI data from the EU, which may be our market mover for this week. EURUSD may move slightly lower to reach our support level at 1.0754 and 1.0774.
Last week, DJ30 was not able to move higher and fell to break our support levels. DJ30 ended the week lower to 33364.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving in the middle with upward momentum. Price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 33786 and 34331, with the support levels at 32672 and 32194.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is strongly moving lower, entering the oversold level. Price is moving at the 50-period, below the 20-period but still above the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 33790 and 34391, while the support levels are at 32828 and 32192.
Conclusion: DJ30 might continue to move lower for this week following the US economic figures, which show an economic slowdown in the US. We expect that DJ30 may reach our support levels at 32828 and 32672.
Last week, USOUSD was able to rise and reach our resistance level at 81.87 as expected. USOUSD closes the week at 81.43.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is in the middle and shows a strong move higher. The price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages and above the 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 83.66 and 86.83, with the support levels at 76.45 and 72.93.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our Stochastic Indicator just exited the overbought level. Price moves above the 20 and 50-period moving averages and below the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are 81.87 and 84.71, while the support levels are 77.47 and 73.94.
Conclusion: The rise in oil demand is helping USOUSD move higher. For this week, we are still expecting that USOUSD can continue to move higher to try to break above our resistance levels at 81.87 and reach 83.66.
Last week, NAS100 moved higher at the end of the week after a few days and reached our support levels. NAS100 closed the week at 11616.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving higher, just above the oversold level. The price is moving below the 50-period moving average and just above the 20 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 11834 and 12127, with the support levels at 11316 and 11023.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our Stochastic Indicator is moving lower in the middle. Price is rejected higher by the 20 and 50-period moving averages but still below the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 11638 and 11924, while the support levels are at 11385 and 11205.
Conclusion: NAS100 might move higher this week, supported by positive data from some tech companies. We expect NAS100 to try to reach our resistance levels at 11834 and 11924.
Last week, GBPUSD moved higher and broke our resistance levels weekly and daily after being affected by strong UK Claimant Change and CPI data. GBPUSD closed the week higher at 1.2398.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is crossing back higher in the middle. The price moves above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages but still below the 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 1.2499 and 1.2644, with the support levels at 1.2214 and 1.2017.
On the daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving just around the overbought level limit. Price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 1.2434 and 1.2575, while the support levels are at 1.2312 and 1.2174.
Conclusion: This week, we will have Flash Services and Manufacturing data from the UK, which might be the market movers. We expect GBPUSD to move lower in the early week to reach our support level at 1.2312 before it goes back higher.
Last week, USD Index moved in a flat movement just around the 101 region. After reaching below our support level, USD Index closes the week at 101.72, just above our daily support level (101.71).
On the Weekly Timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving inside the oversold level. Price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but still above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are 103.20 and 104.89, with the support levels at 101.25 and 98.52.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is also moving in the middle with NO clear direction. Price is moving below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 102.96 and 104.21, with the support levels at 101.71 and 101.02.
Conclusion: This week, we will have US Advance GDP, PCE Price Index, and PMI data which will be the market movers. We expected that USD Index might go higher after being unable to break our support levels to reach above the 102 level.
Last week, USDJPY moved higher after the Japanese Yen weakened as the BoJ showed a dovish statement and reached our resistance levels as expected. USDJPY closed the week at 129.56.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving inside the oversold level and preparing to exit. The price moves below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but remains above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 130,79 and 134.17, with the support levels at 126.45 and 121.96.
On the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator moves higher after exiting the oversold level. Price is moving below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are 129.77 and 131.80, while the support levels are 126.96 and 125.04.
Conclusion: This week, USDJPY might continue to move higher as the market is still affected by BoJ’s dovish decision. We expect USDJPY to move higher to break our daily resistance level at 129.77 and reach above the 131 level.
