Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
In the last week of 2022, we had some strong movement from gold and some major currencies affected by a weaker US$.
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
The US will release the Non-Farm Employment Change and FOMC Meeting Minutes this week.
The Non-farm Employment Change is expected to show a total of 220,000 jobs added in December, down from the 263,000 jobs added in November. Forecasters also expect the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 3.7%.
Meanwhile, the Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee will shed further light on policy intentions going forward.
Here are the key market events for the week ahead:
Swiss Consumer Price Index | 4 January
The Consumer Price Index in Switzerland stood at 0% in November of 2022, unchanged from the previous month.
Analysts expect the index to decrease by 0.3% in December.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 4 January
The US Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49 in November 2022 from 50.2 in October, its first contraction since May 2020.
Analysts expect the index to remain at 49.
US JOLTS Job Openings | 4 January
US job openings dropped by 353,000 to 10.3 million in October 2022, according to the JOLTS report. This may indicate that demand for workers has started to slow amid a softer economic forecast and higher interest rates.
Analysts expect that the number of available jobs will decrease more in November to 10.1 million.
FOMC Meeting Minutes | 5 January
In its last monetary policy meeting of 2022, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 50bps to 4.25%-4.5%. This was its seventh consecutive rate hike.
The Fed expects that interest rates would reach 5.1% in 2023, 4.1% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 5 January
The US private sector added only 127,000 jobs in November of 2022, below economists’ expectations.
Economists expect ADP Non-Farm to create another 150,000 jobs in December.
Canada Employment Change | 6 January
In November 2022, 10,100 jobs were added to the Canadian economy, while the unemployment rate stood at 5.1%, decreasing from the previous month’s rate of 5.2%.
Analysts predict that employment will grow by an additional 60,000 positions over the next month, with the unemployment rate to stand at 5.2%.
US Non-Farm Employment Change | 6 January
The US non-farm payrolls report for November showed an increase of 263,000 jobs following a downwardly revised 284,000 gain in October. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, close to September’s 3.5%.
Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.7% while non-farm payrolls will increase by 220,000 for December.
US ISM Services PMI | 6 January
The US Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index jumped to 56.5 in November from 54.4 in October. It is expected to decline slightly to 53 in December.
Last week, gold ended the year, month, and week stronger. Gold closes the week higher from its open price, gold close at $1,823.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the overbought level with a potential of crossing lower. Gold price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at $1,830, and $1,874, with the support levels at $1,763 and $1,721.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is moving higher in the middle. The price is still moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at $1,824 and $1,833, with the support levels at $1,803 and $1,784.
Conclusion: We start the week with bank holidays and expect little movement from gold. Meanwhile, beginning on Wednesday, we will have some events creating volatility in gold, such as PMI and Employment data from the US. Gold may move higher and try to reach our next resistance level at $1,833 and $1,874.
Last week, EURUSD moved higher to break our resistance level. EURUSD end the year at 1.0700
In our weekly timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is inside the overbought level. The price continues to trade below the 200-period moving averages and above the 20 and 50-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.0780 and 1.0916, with the support levels at 1.0606 and 1.0463.
In our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving strongly higher in the middle. Price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 1.0772 and 1.0903, while the support levels are at 1.0599 and 1.0486.
Conclusion: We start the week with bank holidays and expect little movement from gold. Meanwhile, beginning on Wednesday, we will have some events creating volatility in EURUSD, such as PMI and Employment data from the US. EURUSD may move higher and try to reach our next resistance level at 1.0772 and 1.0780.
Last week, DJ30 ended the week with some flat movement between our support and resistance levels, as expected. DJ30 closed the week at 33164.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see the Stochastic Indicator moving strongly lower in the middle targeting the oversold level. The price was moving above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 33763 and 34785, with the support levels at 32672 and 32126.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our Stochastic Indicator is crossing lower in the middle. The price is moving below the 20-period moving averages but just above the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 33472 and 34612, while the support levels are at 32500 and 31783.
Conclusion: DJ30 will have some strong movement for this week as starting on Wednesday, we will have some events which will create volatility, such as PMI and Employment data from the US. DJ30 might try to break our resistance levels at 33472 and 33763.
Last week, USOUSD moved lower at the start of the week but went strongly higher on the last day of 2022. USOUSD closed the week slightly higher at 80.44.
In the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is exiting the oversold level and starting to look strongly higher. The price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages and above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 82.43 and 85.24, with the support levels at 76.45 and 72.93.
Our daily timeframe shows that our stochastic indicator is moving lower after exiting the overbought level. The price moved above the 20-period moving average and below the 200-period moving average while ending the year at the 50-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 80.88 and 81.80, while the support levels are at 77.42 and 76.37.
Conclusion: As we are already in the new year of 2023, we will see how the market will be affected by the Ukraine – Russia and Covid-19 conditions in China. For the start of the year, we expect USOUSD to continue to move higher to reach our weekly 20-period moving average at 83.94, which might break our resistance levels.
Last week, NAS100 was able to move lower and touched our support levels as expected. NAS100 closes the week at 10956.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving strongly lower, targeting the oversold level. The price is now moving below the 20, 50, and 200- period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 11316 and 11834, with the support levels at 10695 and 10453.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is exiting the oversold level. The price is now moving below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 11256 and 11495, while the support levels are at 10902 and 10677.
Conclusion: NAS100 will have some strong movement for this week as starting on Wednesday, we will have some events which will create volatility, such as PMI and Employment data from the US. We expect that NAS100 will move higher to reach our resistance levels at 11256 and 11316.
Last week, we expected GBPUSD to move between our support and resistance levels as expected. GBPUSD closes the week slightly higher at 1.2090.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator exited the overbought level. The price still moves above the 20-period moving average and below the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 1.2300 and 1.2644, with the support levels at 1.2028 and 1.1867.
We can see that our stochastic indicator is exiting the oversold level on the daily timeframe. Price is moving above the 50-period moving average and below the 20 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 1.2173 and 1.2295, while the support levels are at 1.1991 and 1.1903.
Conclusion: We are starting the week with bank holidays and expect little movement from the GBPUSD. Meanwhile, beginning on Wednesday, we will have some events which will create volatility in GBPUSD, such as PMI and Employment data from the US. GBPUSD may move lower to reach our support level as we have some strong resistance in our daily 200-period moving average. GBPUSD might reach our support levels at 1.1991 and 1.2028.
Last week, USD Index moved lower and reached our support levels. USD Index closes the week at 103.24.
On the Weekly Timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving inside the oversold level. Price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but still above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 104.87 and 106.75, with the support levels at 102.75 and 101.25.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is moving in the middle with no clear direction. Price is moving below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 103.65 and 104.21, with the support levels at 102.79 and 102.23.
Conclusion: Starting on Wednesday, we will have some events which will create volatility in USD, such as PMI and Employment data from the US and the release of FOMC meeting minutes. We expected the USD to continue to move lower to reach our support levels at 102.79 and 102.75.
Last week, USDJPY continued to fall as the market still follows the Bank of Japan’s decision as expected. USDJPY closed the week lower at 131.07.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving inside the oversold level with NO clear direction. The price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but remains above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 134.21 and 136.80, with the support levels at 130.45 and 126.45.
The stochastic indicator is crossing lower in the middle on the daily timeframe. Price is moving below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are 132.53 and 133.68, while the support levels are 130.60 and 129.64.
Conclusion: After a shocking decision by the Bank of Japan, which is strengthening the JPY, we can expect some continuation movement this week, added by some news from the US. We expect that USDJPY to move lower as JPY might strengthen more. USDJPY might move lower to try to break our support level at 130.60.
