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Last week, the market moved in high volatility as many statements and rate decisions from several central banks with some inflation data were released.
(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
This week, there is a limited amount of information coming out. The focus would be on the Bank of Japan, which will release its policy statement stating its latest decision on interest rates. In the meantime, CPI and GDP data will be released in Canada, which will be significant for the country.
Meanwhile, the US will only release the Core PCE Price Index this week.
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement | 20 December 2022
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that for 10-year bond yields around 0% in October but lifted its 2022 inflation forecast to 2.9% from 2.3% in July, citing surging prices of energy, food, and durable goods.
For this month, analysts expect BoJ to keep their interest rate at -0.1%
Canada’s Consumer Price Index | 21 December 2022
The Consumer Price Index in Canada increased 0.70% in October over the previous month.
For November, analysts expect Canada’s CPI to increase by 0.4%.
Canada’s Gross Domestic Product | 23 December 2022
Canada’s economy expanded in September by 0.1%, slowing from the upwardly revised 0.3% advance in August.
Analysts forecast that Canada’s GDP be at 0.0% in October.
US Core PCE Price Index | 23 December 2022
Core PCE prices in the US, excluding food and energy, went up by 0.2% month-on-month in October, below 0.5% in September.
For November, analysts expect the US Core PCE Price Index to increase by another 0.2%.
Last week, gold moved higher and above our first daily resistance level as US CPI released was lower than expected. It went back lower as the Fed raised its interest rates by 50bps. Gold closed the week slightly lower from its open price. It closed at $1,792.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator shows a higher movement inside the overbought level. Gold price moves above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at $1,830 and $1,874, with the support levels at $1,763 and $1,721.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is strongly moving lower in the middle. Price is still moving above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at $1,806 and $1,824, with the support levels at $1,760 and $1,734.
Conclusion: There is not much US data for this week, showing there’s a possibility for low volatility for gold. We expect that gold might move in a range between our daily support (1760) and resistance (1806).
Last week, EURUSD moved higher to reach our resistance levels as expected, as US CPI data released was lower than expected, and ECB raised its interest rates by 50bps. EURUSD closed the week at 1.0585, slightly lower than our resistance levels.
On our weekly timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator rises inside the overbought level. The price continues to trade below the 200-period moving average and above the 20-period moving average while just around the 50-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.0599 and 1.0780, with the support levels at 1.0360 and 1.0095.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our Stochastic Indicator is moving in the middle with a lower direction. Price is moving above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 1.0614 and 1.0772, while the support levels are at 1.0486 and 1.0365.
Conclusion: As there is little data released for this week, we can expect low volatility from the EURUSD. EURUSD might try to move lower to reach our daily support and our 20-period moving average at 1.0475 – 1.0485.
Last week, DJ30 was able to reach our resistance levels as expected. DJ30 reached the highest for the week at 34951 as US CPI released was lower than expected. But then DJ30 moved back lower to reach our support level when the Fed raised its interest rates. DJ30 closes the week at 32867.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is exiting the overbought level. The price is now moving above all the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 33763 and 34785, with the support levels at 32672 and 32126.
Our daily timeframe shows that our Stochastic Indicator is moving lower, targeting the oversold level. The price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but just above the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 33472 and 34612, while the support levels are at 32500 and 31783.
Conclusion: We expect few movements from the stock market as this is near the end of the year. Technically, we expect DJ30 to move slightly lower to try to break our lower moving averages. We expect the market to end the week with positive notes and reach our resistance levels at 33472 (daily) and 33763 (weekly).
Last week, USOUSD was only able to reach the 70 level but unable to break below it. USOUSD created a volatility movement between our daily and weekly support and resistances. USOUSD closed the week at 74.57.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is entering the oversold level and starting to cross back up. The price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages and just around the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 75.92 and 82.43, with the support levels at 70.11 and 64.93.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving inside the overbought level. Price moves below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 76.31 and 79.83, while the support levels are at 69.55 and 67.21.
Conclusion: With the market still weighing on the demand outlook with unclear China pandemic decision and recession fear, USOUSD can move lower to try reaching our weekly support again at 70.00 and daily support level at 69.55.
Last week, NAS100 was able to reach our resistance levels as expected. NAS100 reached the highest for the week at 12223 as US CPI released was lower than expected. But then NAS100 moved back lower to reach our daily support level when the Fed raised its interest rates. NAS100 closes the week at 11211.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is crossing back down at the edge of the overbought level. The price is moving below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 12159 and 12714, with the support levels at 11057 and 10695.
Our daily timeframe shows that our stochastic indicator moves lower, entering the oversold level. Price is now moving below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 11495 and 11877, while the support levels are at 11096 and 10902.
Conclusion: We expect few movements from the stock market as this is near the end of the year. Technically, we expect NAS100 to move slightly lower to reach our support levels at 11057 (weekly) and 11096 (daily) before returning up.
Last week, we expected GBPUSD to move higher to reach our daily resistance level at 1.2407 and was able to do so. GBPUSD moved back lower due to the dovish Bank of England rate statement and closed the week at 1.2142.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the overbought level and starting to cross lower. The price still moves above the 20-period moving average and below the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 1.2300 and 1.2644, with the support levels at 1.2028 and 1.1867.
Our Stochastic Indicator is moving in the middle with a strong lower direction on the daily timeframe. Price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 1.2324 and 1.2430, while the support levels are at 1.2050 and 1.1953.
Conclusion: This week, we expect low volatility as only a little data will be released. We expect GBPUSD to move lower to reach our support levels at 1.2028 (weekly) and 1.2050 (daily).
Last week, USD Index was moving lower as expected as US CPI released was lower than expected. USD Index got stronger at the end of the week as the Fed raised its interest rates by 50 bps. USD Index moved higher and closed the week at 104.45.
On the Weekly Time Frame, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving inside the oversold level. Price is moving below the 20-period moving average but still above the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 105.45 and 107.94, with the support levels at 103.64 and 101.62.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator is moving in the middle with a higher direction. Price is moving below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 105.68 and 107.04, with the support levels at 103.91 and 103.14.
Conclusion: Since not much data will be released for this week, USD Index might still move following the Fed rate decision. We expect USD Index to move higher and reach our daily resistance level at 105.68.
Last week, USDJPY moved flatly between our daily support and resistance levels. USDJPY closed the week at 136.72.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving inside the oversold level and starting to cross higher. The price moves below the 20-period moving average but remains above the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are 139.39 and 142.33, with the support levels at 133.39 and 130.80.
On the daily timeframe, the stochastic indicator is moving higher in the middle. Price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages and above the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are 137.58 and 140.05, while the support levels are 134.59 and 132.53.
Conclusion: Since there is not much data to be released this week, USD Index might still move following the Fed rate decision. We expect that USDJPY will move higher and reach our weekly resistance level and 20-period moving average at 139.39.
