Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
The Federal Reserve’s November 1-2 meeting minutes revealed that most officials supported pausing interest-rate hikes, boosting sentiment this week. Investors have analysed a lot of economic data since the Fed’s last meeting, easing inflation concerns and supporting lower rate hikes.
(All data is taken from the MT4 VT Markets)
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
The US Labour Department reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 261,000 last month, more than expected by economists who had forecast a 200,ooo increase in hiring.
The unemployment rate increased by 0.2% to 3.7% as more people entered the labour force looking for work. Economists forecast another 200,000 additional jobs for November.
Meanwhile, private payrolls rose by 239,000 in October, according to the report from ADP. The leisure and hospitality industry saw the most gains.
The report also showed that wages increased 7.7% year-over-year—which is in line with what economists had predicted but slightly higher than September’s 7.6% figure.
Here’s what to expect for the week ahead:
Canadian Gross Domestic Product M/M | 29th November 2022
According to preliminary estimates, the Canadian economy expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 of 2022, pointing to a 0.1% growth in September from August.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 30th November 2022
Private businesses in the US unexpectedly created 239,000 jobs in October of 2022, the most in three months.
Analysts expect an additional 200,000 jobs for November.
OPEC Meetings | 1st December 2022
Saudi Arabia said that OPEC+ was sticking with oil output cuts and could take further measures to balance the market amid falling oil prices.
Swiss Consumer Price Index | 1st December 2022
The Consumer Price Index in Switzerland rose 0.10% in October over the previous month.
For November, analysts expect an increase of another 0.1%.
US Core PCE Price Index M/M | 1st December 2022
Core PCE prices in the US, excluding food and energy, went up by 0.6% in August, rising from the revised stall in the previous month.
For September, analysts expect that Core PCE prices will be at 0.4%.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 1st December 2022
The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 in October from 50.9 in September, indicating the slowest growth in factory activity since the contraction in mid-2020.
For November, we can expect the ISM Manufacturing PMI to be around 50.
Canadian Employment Data | 2nd December 2022
The Canadian economy added 108,300 jobs in October, the most since February, while the unemployment rate was at 5.2% in October, unchanged from the prior month, signalling that the Canadian labour market remains tight.
Analysts forecast a decline of 20,000 jobs for November, with the unemployment rate at 5.4%.
US Non-Farm Employment Change | 2nd December 2022
The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 261,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate increased by 0.2% to 3.7% in the same month, up from September’s 29-month low of 3.5%.
For November, analysts expect to add another 200,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%.
Last week, we anticipated Gold to move to reach our weekly 20-period moving average and was able to do so. Gold moved in a short range and closed the week at $1,754.
On a weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator shows a strong higher movement. Gold price is moving above the 20 and 200-period moving averages but still below the 50-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at $1,830 and $1,878, with the support levels at $1,743 and $1,688.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicator has now exited the oversold level with the potential to move higher. Meanwhile, the price is still moving above the 20 and 50-period moving averages and trying to reach the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are at $1,806 and $1,873, with the support levels at $1,728 and $1,696.
Conclusion: With some crucial data from the US for this week, focusing on the US Jobs data, we can expect that Gold will have more significant volatility. Gold might try to move higher when the week starts and move lower to reach our support levels.
Last week, EURUSD was unable to move lower as expected. EURUSD moved higher and closed the week at 1.0390.
The Stochastic Indicator is progressively rising on the weekly timeframe, entering the oversold level. The price continues to trade below the 50 and 200-period moving averages and above the 20-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.0547 and 1.0780, with the support levels at 1.0037 and 0.9869.
In our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving higher. Price is moving back a little bit above the 200-period moving averages and above the 20 and 50-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 1.0484 and 1.0614, while the support levels are at 1.0349 and 1.0258.
Conclusion: With some US data to be released for this week, we can expect more movement from the EURUSD. We anticipate the EURUSD to move lower to break all our daily support levels.
Last week, we expected that DJ30 would move lower, but was unable to do so. DJ30 moved higher the whole week.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the overbought level and trying to cross. At the same time, the price is now moving above all the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 34785 and 35627, with the support levels at 33588 and 32611.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving inside the overbought level and trying to cross. The price is moving above the 20, 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 34796 and 35338, while the support levels are at 33476 and 32500.
Conclusion: With US Jobs data released this week, we can expect some volatility from the DJ30. We anticipated that DJ30 would move lower to reach our weekly support levels at 32611.
Last week, we expected the USOUSD to move lower and was able to do so. USOUSD close the week at 76.32, near our support level.
On the Weekly timeframe, we see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving lower. The price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages while still above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 85.07 and 92.81, with the support levels at 76.09 and 70.11.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is moving near the oversold level with uncertain movement, while the price moves below the 20, 50 and 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are 81.52 and 85.73, while the support levels are 76.09 and 72.86.
Conclusion: With the OPEC meeting this week, we expect USOUSD to move lower if the OPEC meeting decides to add more supply. We expect the USOUSD to keep lowering to reach our daily support at 72.86.
Last week, we expected NAS100 to move lower before going back up and was able to do so but in a tighter range and only close the week at 11764.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving higher. The price is still moving below the 20 and 50 and just broke above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 12159 and 12714 (50-period moving average), with the support levels at 11575 and 11057.
Our daily timeframe shows that our stochastic indicator moves higher, entering the overbought level. Price is still moving above the 20 and 50-period moving averages but below the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 12179 and 12575, while the support levels are at 11314 and 10902.
Conclusion: With US Jobs data released this week, we can expect some volatility from the NAS100. We anticipated that NAS100 would move lower to reach our weekly support levels at 11057.
Last week, we expected GBPUSD to move lower. Instead, GBPUSD moved higher and closed the week above the 1.2 barriers.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the overbought level and not showing any potential of crossing lower. The price moves above the 20-period moving average but still below the 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.2279 and 1.2644, with the support levels at 1.1826 and 1.1417.
We can see that our stochastic indicator is now entering the overbought level on the daily timeframe. Price is moving above the 20 and 50-period moving averages but below the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 1.2250 and 1.2407, while the support levels are at 1.1953 and 1.1711.
Conclusion: We expect more volatility from the GBPUSD this week as the US will release its jobs report, and we will have a speech from the BoE this week. We expect GBPUSD to move lower, at least to touch our daily support level at 1.1950.
Last week, we expected that USD Index to move higher to touch our weekly resistance levels. USD Index was able to do so, reaching near our resistance level but eventually moving lower to close the week at 105.93.
On the Weekly Time Frame, we see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving lower, entering the oversold level. Price is moving below the 20-period moving average but still above the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are 107.94 and 109.94, with the support levels at 104.81 and 101.62.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic Indicator is also entering the oversold level on the daily timeframe. Price is now trading below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but just above the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels at 108.20 and 109.23, with the support levels at 105.47 and 104.50.
Conclusion: With the US Jobs report released this week, we can expect that USD Index will move with more volatility to break one of our support or resistance levels. We expect that USD Index may move higher to reach our weekly and daily resistance level at 108.20.
Last week we expected to see USDJPY move higher to reach our daily resistance level and was able to reach the 141.50 level before closing the week at 139.16.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving lower, strongly entering the oversold level. The price moves just below the 20-period moving average but remains above the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 140.33 and 145.15, with the support levels at 133.39 and 130.80.
On the daily timeframe, the stochastic indicator is moving lower. Price is moving below the 20 and 50-period moving averages but above the 200-period moving average.
Our Daily resistance levels are 141.50 and 145.02, while the support levels are 137.53 and 135.82.
Conclusion: With the US Jobs report released this week, we can expect that USDJPY will move with more volatility. We anticipated that USDJPY would move higher this week and try to reach our daily resistance level at 141.50 again.
