Spreads
Spreads
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Spreads
After a solid start to the week boosted by the Fed raising interest rates, the US Dollar fell back on Friday because jobs data came in stronger than expected. This also hinted at some slack in the tight American labour market, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease up on monetary tightening. The USD Index is up 0.19% for the week.
(All data taken from the MT4 VT Markets)
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
Since the Federal Reserve announced its September rate decision, consumer price growth in the US has accelerated across a wide range of goods and services. This signifies that underlying inflationary pressures are growing stronger.
Fed officials will announce another rate hike in December, with analysts expecting the central bank to also increase interest rates further.
US Midterm Elections (November 8)
Voters will go to the polls to decide who will hold key offices in their respective states and cities. The result of this election is expected to have a major impact on the US economy, and analysts are keeping close tabs on the situation.
US Consumer Price Index (November 10)
US CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in September, the highest reading in three months.
Analysts expect consumer prices to increase by a further 0.7%.
UK Gross Domestic Product (November 11)
UK economic growth slowed by 0.3% month-on-month in August after rising by 0.1% in July.
Analysts expect GDP to be 0.1% for September.
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (November 11)
The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey in the US showed a reading of 59.9.
Economists forecast the index to come in at 60 for this month.
Our previous week’s conclusion for Gold is for it to reach our support level at $1,614, which didn’t happen when the labour data release unexpectedly brought the USD lower. Gold reached as low as $1,616 before rising higher to end the week at $1,680.
On a weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicators have now crossed higher. Gold prices remain below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at $1,697 and $1,738, with the support levels at $1,640 and $1,614.
Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Stochastic Indicators show a higher movement after touching the overbought level. Meanwhile, the price could break above the 20- and 50-period moving averages because of Friday’s movement.
Our Daily resistance levels are at $1,727 and $1,695, with the support levels at $1,634 and $1,611.
Conclusion: With CPI data being released this Thursday and no other data release other than the Midterm Congressional Elections, we expect the USD to move slightly lower at the start of this week. According to the CPI data, we can expect Gold to reach higher resistance levels at $1,695 – $1,697 before moving.
Last week, the EURUSD fell but could not reach our support levels.
The Stochastic Indicator is progressively rising in the weekly timeframe, but the price remains within the downward channel movement, indicating that upward movement is still limited. The price continues to trade below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 1.0090 and 1.0263, with the support levels at 0.9733 and 0.9533.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicators reached the overbought levels yet were able to exit and started to move higher. Price is still trading below the 200-period moving averages, but it has broken above the 20 and 50-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are now at 1,0092 and 1,0192, while the support levels are at 0.9729 and 0.9666.
Conclusion: This week, we don’t have much data from the Eurozone; the focus will be on US CPI data. We expect that the EURUSD will attempt to trade higher, breaking above the downward channel to touch our weekly resistance at 1.0090 and our 20-period moving average.
Last week, we expected the DJ30 to fall and try to break below 32399 and 32260, reaching the week close at 32381 after falling to 31743 for the week.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator shows a strong upward movement. The price was able to break above all the 20 and 50-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are now at 33763 and 34785, with the support levels at 31353 and 30126.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator has exited the overbought level. The price is now above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 33321 and 34188, while the support levels are at 31709 and 30151.
Conclusion: With CPI data being released on Thursday and no data other than the Midterm Congressional Elections, we can expect the USD to move slightly lower at the start of this week. This will boost the DJ30 to move higher to reach our resistance levels at 33321 – 33763.
USOUSD (WTI) was up for the week last week as the dollar weakened, with an EU ban on Russian oil looming big and investors considering the possibility of China lifting COVID restrictions. USOUSD closed the week at 91.82, higher than last week’s forecast.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is rising. The price has reached and tried to move above the 20- and 50-period moving averages while still above the 200-period moving average.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 93,86 and 100,90, with the support levels at 83,66 and 76,09.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator is also rising, and the price can break above the 200-period moving average after moving above the 20 and 50-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 92,62 and 95,26, while the support levels are at 88,74 and 85.74.
Conclusion: We anticipate some excellent market activities because we are still seeing the effects of the EU ban on Russian oil looming big. Investors are considering the possibility of China lifting COVID restrictions. We expect the USOUSD to rise further, reaching our daily resistance levels of 92.62 and our weekly resistance at 93,86.
Last week, we expected that NAS100 would reach 11250, but it fell below and reached as low as 10604 before closing at 10843.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is moving higher. The price is still moving below the 20, 50, and 200- period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 11575 (200-period moving average) and 12159, with the support levels at 10836 and 10350.
On our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicators are touching the oversold level. Price is still moving below the 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 11305 and 11667, while the support levels are at 10677 and 10315.
Conclusion: With CPI data being released on Thursday and no data other than the Midterm Congressional Elections, we can expect the USD to move slightly lower at the start of this week. This will boost the NAS100 to move higher to reach our daily resistance levels at 11305.
Last week, GBPUSD fell after the UK’s central bank said it expects a recession to endure for the entirety of 2023 and the first part of 2024.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is still higher, indicating significant upward momentum. The price is still below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.1667 and 1.1868, with the support levels at 1.1065 and 1.0783.
On the daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator has entered the oversold zone and is beginning to cross higher. Price is at the 20-period moving average, but it is still below the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 1.1621 and 1.1826, while the support levels are at 1.1151 and 1.0925.
Conclusion: This week, we will have GDP data from the UK. We expect GBPUSD to rise higher to reach the resistance level at 1.1621 – 1.1677.
Last week, GBPUSD fell after the UK’s central bank said it expects a recession to endure for the entirety of 2023 and the first part of 2024.
In the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is still higher, indicating significant upward momentum. The price is still below the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are at 1.1667 and 1.1868, with the support levels at 1.1065 and 1.0783.
On the daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicator has entered the oversold zone and is beginning to cross higher. Price is at the 20-period moving average, but it is still below the 50 and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are at 1.1621 and 1.1826, while the support levels are at 1.1151 and 1.0925.
Conclusion: This week, we will have GDP data from the UK. We expect GBPUSD to rise higher to reach the resistance level at 1.1621 – 1.1677.
Last week, USDJPY was affected by the USD fall on Friday because US jobs data came in stronger than expected.
On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is exiting the overbought zone. The price remains above the 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Weekly resistance levels are 151.42 and 156,28, with the support levels at 143,45 and 138,49.
On the daily timeframe, the stochastic indicator is exiting the overbought level. Price is still below the 20-period moving average but above the 50, and 200-period moving averages.
Our Daily resistance levels are 149.35 and 151.99, while the support levels are 144.66 and 142.19.
Conclusion: We’re still waiting for Japan to intervene in the currency market. We expect the USDJPY to move higher only because we expect the US CPI data to release higher. We see that USDJPY will still move between 144.66 and 149.35 area.
