Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Last week was packed with US data and speeches from Federal Reserve members. US PPI, CPI, CORE CPI, and CORE Retail Sales came in above forecasts, indicating that the US economy is slightly slowing down.
The Federal Reserve had an opportunity to propose a more aggressive rate hike in the FOMC Meeting Minutes but did not do so. Instead, it disappointed investors by failing to outline its future objectives. The current data, on the other hand, indicates that the Fed will need to act by hiking rates for a longer period or more aggressively. They have witnessed a slowdown in the labour market, which could be one of the reasons they are hesitant to act aggressively.
The USD index (USDX) rose last week after the US PPI, CPI, CORE CPI, and CORE Retail Sales exceeded expectations.
(All data taken from the MT4 VT Markets)
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
Several crucial events will take place this week, starting with the US releasing the Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
The UK, Canada, and New Zealand will also release their CPI data.
Meanwhile, Australia is scheduled to release its employment condition and meeting minutes earlier in the week.
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index increased by 30 points to -1.5 in August 2022.
Firms were not optimistic that business conditions would improve over the next few months. Analysts expect the figure to be around -1 this month.”
CPI in New Zealand rose 1.7% over the previous quarter, easing from a 1.8% gain in the last period.
Analysts expect that CPI in New Zealand will rise another 1.6% for the third quarter of 2022.”
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the cash rate by 25bps to 2.6% during its October 2022 meeting, defying market estimates of a 50bps hike.
Based on data, policymakers intend to raise interest rates further, with size and timing. The committee remains committed to bringing inflation to target levels and will do what’s necessary.
CPI in the UK increased 0.50% month-on-month in August of 2022, the lowest rate in seven months.
Analysts forecast the figure to increase by 0.30% in September.
In August 2022, Canadian consumer prices declined 0.3% compared to the prior month’s 0.1% rise. It was the steepest monthly drop since April 2020.
Analysts expect consumer prices in September to remain at 0%.
Employment in Australia increased by 33,500 to a new high of 13.59 million in August this year. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate was at 3.5% in August 2022, the first increase in 10 months.
For September, analysts expect that Employment will increase by 40,000 while Unemployment Rate will be back at 3.4%.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -9.9 in September 2022 from 6.2 in August.
Analysts forecast another decline of -5 for this month.
Last week, gold prices fell due to a stronger US dollar, nearing our support level of $1,644 and falling below the 200-candle Moving Average.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicators have just moved over the oversold level, indicating that Gold is about to rise. Gold prices will attempt to go back above the 200-candle moving average; if Gold can do so, price consolidation may occur at higher levels.
Our weekly resistance levels at $1,697, and $1,738 with the support levels at $1,614, and $1,559.
Meanwhile, during the daily period, we can see that the Stochastic Indicators are inside the oversold zone, indicating that the trend will likely revert higher. Meanwhile, we can see that the price is below the 20, 50, and 200-candle Moving Averages, indicating that the price will continue to fall.
Our daily resistance levels at $1,679 and $1,695, with the support levels at $1,634 and $1,611.
Last week, the EURUSD fell 0.12% due to the strong USD, ending the week at 0.9719.
On the weekly period, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator stabilises just above the oversold level while the price movement is making a perfect downward channel movement, indicating no sign of a move back up. We continue to forecast lower action when the price moves below the moving averages of 20, 50, and 200 candles. We anticipate that EURUSD will be slightly higher before attempting to breach lower.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 0,9860 and 1.0090, with the support levels at 0.9625 and 0.9533.
In our daily period, we can see that our stochastic indicators are rising higher outside of the oversold level, indicating that the EURUSD may rise. Price is still advancing above the 20, 50, and 200-candle moving Averages while attempting to break above the 20-candle moving average.
Our daily resistance levels are at 0.9872 and 0.9940, while the support levels are at 0.9666 and 0.9550.
Last week, US indices experienced volatile trading due to inflation data, but the DJ30 ended the week higher, closing at 29663.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the oversold zone, but there is still a chance for it to reverse higher. With this week’s minor data release, there’s a chance that the price will go above the oversold level. The price is moving below the moving averages of 20, 50, and 200 candles; we still expect the price to fall below our next support levels.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 30651 and 31362, with the support levels at 28781 and 27642.
We can see that our stochastic indicators are consolidating and moving higher in our daily timeframe. Price remains below 20, 50, and 200 candles. moving averages indicate that potential downward movement is still present, but we must be cautious of short-term higher movement because prices are beginning to breach the 20-day moving averages.
Our daily resistance levels are at 30472 and 31079, while the support levels are at 28710 and 28036.
Last week, the USOUSD (WTI) fell more than 8% due to recession concerns, ending the week at 84.58.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator rises following the supply cut decision made the previous week. We may expect the oil price to rise again this week, reaching our resistance level. The price is below the 20, 50, and 200-candle moving averages.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 93,86 and 100,90, with the support levels at 83,66 and 76,09.
In our daily timeframe, we can see that our stochastic indicators are moving downward, attempting to move inside the oversold zone. The price has recently moved below the moving averages of 20, 50, and 200 candles, indicating that a potential lower movement is still on track in the short term.
Our daily Resistance levels is at 85,70 and 88,30, while the support levels at 81,51 , 79,35 and 76,17.
Last week, US indices had volatile trading due to inflation data. The NAS100 finished the week lower, closing at 10700.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the oversold level, but there is no hint of a higher reversal. With this week’s minor data release, there’s a chance that the price will go above the oversold level. The price is moving below the moving averages of 20, 50, and 200 candles; we still expect the price to fall below our next support levels.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 11333 and 12159, with the support levels at 10350 and 9748.
In our daily period, we can see that our stochastic indicators are inside the oversold level and beginning to break out of the oversold level, indicating that the price may move higher. Price is still moving below the 20, 50, and 200-candle ranges. moving averages indicating potential downward movement remain intact, but we must be cautious of short-term higher movement.
Our daily resistance levels are at 11251 and 11667, while the support levels are at 10371 and 9793.
Last week, the GBPUSD set a weekly gain of 0.88%, following a rally in the beginning days of the week, which then stalled on Friday as Kwarteng resigned and the PM U-Turned. The GBPUSD pair finished the week at 1.11771.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is rising higher, indicating a significant upward momentum. The price is still sliding below the moving averages of the 20, 50, and 200 candles, and we expect the price to remain lower in the longer term as it attempts to return to the moving averages.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 1.1411 and 1.1755, with the support levels at 1.0795 and 1.0300.
In our daily period, we can see that our stochastic indicators are likewise rising upward, indicating that the upward trend is still intact. Price attempts to break above the 20-candle moving average while also trying to hit the 50-candle moving average while remaining below the 200-candle moving average.
Our daily resistance levels are at 1.1462 and 1.1735, while the support levels are at 1.0925 and 1.0650.
The US PPI, CPI, CORE CPI, and CORE Retail Sales all came in above forecasts last week, indicating that the US economy is weakening slightly. USDX reached our first resistance level of 113.83 before closing lower at 113.16.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator has entered the overbought zone and is beginning to reverse. Technically, this means that buying power has peaked. This week will see the release of light data from the United States, indicating that the USDX may continue to consolidate with a slightly lower move. The price remains above the 20, 50, and 200-candle moving averages. This could mean that there is no reversal sign at present.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 113.83 and 115.35, with the support levels at 110.82 and 107.97.
Meanwhile, at the daily timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator has just broken out of the Overbought zone, indicating that the price may fall slightly. We anticipate that the price will attempt to go below our support level of 111.47. The price is still above the 20, 50, and 200-candle moving averages, indicating that some higher movement is still expected, even though the price will attempt to fall below the 20-day moving average.
Our daily resistance levels are at 113.79 and 114.75, with the support levels at 111.47, 110.76 and 109,96.
USDJPY had a strong week last week, supported by a stronger USDX, after US PPI, CPI, CORE CPI, and CORE Retail Sales all came in above expectations, reaching an all-time high near the 149 level.
On the weekly timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is inside the overbought zone, but there is still a chance that it will reverse lower. With this week’s minor data release, there’s a chance that the price will fall below the overbought level. The price is going above the moving averages of 20, 50, and 200-candle moving averages, and we can expect a higher continuous movement while waiting for any intervention from the Bank of Japan.
Our weekly resistance levels are at 151.42 and 156,28, with the support levels at 143,45 and 138,49.
We can see that our stochastic indicators are inside the overbought zones in our daily period. The price remains above 20, 50, and 200 candles. Moving averages indicate that probable higher movement may continue, but we must be cautious of short-term lower movement.
Our daily resistance levels are 149.35 and 154.91, while the support levels are 144.66 and 142.19.
