Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
Spreads
(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)
(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)
Investors are keenly watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week on how the Federal Reserve plans to manage interest rates after on-year inflation hit 9.1% in June, the highest since November 1981.
The US will also release advanced GDP and core PCE price index data this week, while Australia is set to announce CPI numbers.
Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) – July 27, 2022
Economists expect Australia’s on-quarter CPI data to continue an uptrend. Q1’s inflation hit 5.1% in its highest reading since the introduction of goods and services tax in early 2000s, reflecting soaring fuel prices and surging building costs.
US FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate – July 28, 2022
Policymakers are backing a 50-75 basis points rate hike as they anticipate continued price surges. Officials say the murky economic outlook justifies a restrictive policy stance, and urge more stringent measures if inflation woes persist.
The US Federal Reserve increased its funds rate by 75bps to 1.5%-1.75% in June, as the annual inflation rate accelerated to 9.1%, the highest since November 1981.
US Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – July 28, 2022
Analysts estimate on-quarter advance GDP to edge up 0.8%-0.9%.
The US economy fell an annualised 1.6% in Q1, its first contraction since the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, weighed down by record trade deficits, supply constraints, worker shortages, and high inflation.
US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index – July 29, 2022
The US PCE price index is forecast to 0.9% for June, up from 0.6% in May.
The USD Index (USDX) declined last week after the release of weak PMI data but is still in our Support – Resistance area. This week, USD Index may break one of the levels, Support or Resistance, depending on an interest rate decision on Wednesday by the US Federal Reserve.
In the Weekly Time Frame, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is steady in the overbought levels and trying to create some reversal. The USD Index weekly price is still way above the 20-, 50-, and 200-candle Moving Averages.
Our Weekly Resistance Levels are at 108.34 and 109.22, with the Support Levels at 105.56 and 104.69.
Meanwhile, in the H4 Timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is at a neutral level, which shows a possible ranging move in the short term. Price still moves below the 20- and 50-candle Moving Averages and above the 200-candle Moving Average, which means there’s also a possibility that the market will be slightly lower.
Our H4 Resistance Levels are at 107.49 and 108.34, with the Support Levels at 106.18 and 105.20.
Last week, gold prices increased, the first after a fifth straight weekly loss, unable to reject our Support Levels at $1675-$1687, which is similar to the 200-candle Moving Average, and bounced back near our Weekly Resistance. This week’s potential movement is waiting for Wednesday’s interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve.
In the Weekly Timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator is at an oversold level, with a potential reversal. Gold prices move above the 200-candle Moving Average and below the 20- and 50-candle Moving Averages.
Our Weekly Resistance Levels at $1744, and $1763 with the Support Levels at $1687, and $1675.
Meanwhile, in the H4 Timeframe, we can see that the Stochastic Indicator shows a potential reversal to move lower. Yet, the price now moves above the 20- and 50-candle Moving Averages but below the 200-candle Moving Average.
Our H4 Resistance Levels are at $1734 and $1745, with the Support Levels at $1722 and $1698.
US stocks enjoyed a strong week as traders rallied second-quarter results that fared better than expected. The NAS100 closed higher by 2.98%.
This week, we expect positive continuation movement from NAS100 as seen in the Weekly Timeframe. Our Stochastic Indicator shows a higher movement, with the price just rejected for some weeks by the 200-candle Moving Average, while still below the 20- and 50-candle Moving Averages, showing a limited higher movement.
Our Weekly Resistance Levels are at 12896 and 13349, with the Support Levels at 11505 and 11255.
In our H4 Timeframe, we can see that our Stochastic Indicator shows a lower movement with a possibility of the price moving lower for the short term and above the 20, 50, and 200-candle Moving Averages.
Our H4 Resistance Levels are at 12583 and 12832, while the Support Levels are at 12145 and 11993.
The DJ30 closed higher by 1.72%.
This week, we expect higher movement in the DJ30 as seen in the Weekly Timeframe. Our Stochastic Indicator showed a higher movement and was rejected for a few weeks by the 200-candle Moving Average, while still below the 20- and 50- candle Moving Averages.
Our Weekly Resistance Levels are at 31882 and 32536, with the Support Levels at 31076 and 30604.
In our H4 Timeframe, we can see that our Stochastic Indicator shows a stronger movement but in the overbought levels. We can expect that the DJ30 might go higher with a potential short-term reversal. Price is trying to break above the 200-candle Moving Average and is supported by the 20- and 50-candle Moving Averages.
We can see a possible higher movement to Resistance and back lower.
Our H4 Resistance Levels are at 32328 and 32710, while the Support Levels are at 31563 and 30990.
