Weekly Market Analysis: 27 June 2022

　　

What happened in the market last week?

• Canada’s inflation rate beat forecasts and rose 1.4%. 
• Retail sales data for Canada slowed, dropping from 2.6% to 1.3%, showing restrained consumer spending.
• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe suggested the RBA will continue to hike rates by 25 to 50bps, with inflation rising to 7%. 
• US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified in Congress, outlining the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation.

Last Week Market Pair Changes

US indices recovered from three straight weeks of losses as the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials buoyed sentiments on the economy and reading on inflation expectations eased.

• NAS100 gained 7.14%, SP500 increased 6.21%, and DJ30 rose 5.09%. 
• Oil (USOUSD) dropped 2.31%.
• USD Index fell 0.53%.
• Gold fell 0.61%.
• EURUSD grew stronger by 0.77%.
• USDCAD pair dropped 0.95%.

(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)

(Picture taken from forexfactory.com)

What to focus on this week?

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual retreat in Portugal this week will offer insights into policy directions for the rest of the year, as a turbulent first half draws to a close following some of the highest rate hikes in decades. 

ECB President Christine Lagarde, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled for a panel discussion at the forum on Wednesday, and will likely deliberate the delicate balance between moves to stamp out record inflation and prevent a global recession.

Key economic data to look out for in the next few days include the US core PCE price index, one of the Fed’s primary inflation measures, which is expected to gain 0.3% per month.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be released, at a forecast of 55. Business sentiments remain strongly optimistic regarding demand, but supply chain and pricing issues continue to be significant concerns.

Technical Analysis

USD Index

The USD index (USDX) weakened last week and is back into our support and resistance levels. We still believe these levels will be able to hold the USDX movement for this week.

On the weekly timeframe, our support levels are at 103.20 and 102.68, with resistance levels at 104.65 and 105.04. 

Meanwhile, on the 4-hour timeframe, the resistance level will be at 104.88, and the support level is at 103.20 and 102.81.

Resistance: 104.65, 104.88, 105.04

Support: 103.20, 102.81, 102.68

Gold (XAUUSD)

Last week, Gold moved lower, trying to break our support and closing below the support level at $1832. Our resistance stayed strong at $1877. 

This week, there is a possibility for Gold to continue moving lower, likely breaking our next weekly support level at $1791. 

Meanwhile, on the 4-hour timeframe, the closest support will be at $1815, with a resistance level at $1856.

Resistance: $1856, $1874

Support: $1815

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