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Weekly Market Analysis: 18 April 2022


What happened in the market last week?

  • Both the USD and the GBP’s inflation rates increased and caused the two currencies to strengthen.
  • The RBNZ increased interest rates to 1.5%, causing the New Zealand dollar to weaken. Investors believe the central bank is hiking rates prematurely to be able to cut them back later, which prompted the fall of the NZD. 
  • The Bank of Canada also increased its interest rates, as predicted by market analysts, which resulted in the Canadian dollar retaining its strength. 
  • The ECB maintained interest rates at 0.00% to maintain the ability to modify them at any time.

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What to focus on this week?

Speeches from several central bank governors, beginning with RBNZ’s Adrian Orr on Tuesday, may outline future rate hikes, as inflation is expected to rise again.

Some investors say the RBNZ has hiked rates too much for viable adjustments in the future, and believe Orr may begin to scale back. 

On Thursday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is likely to remain hawkish on the pound, as inflation continues. 

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak and provide insight into the Fed’s plans for its upcoming meeting.

Some data to monitor this week include Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports in Canada and New Zealand. These data may indicate further monetary policy actions by each country’s central banks. Also this week, the EUR will be releasing Germany’s PMI data.

In France, the presidential election will take place on April 24, 2022. The finalist candidates are incumbent president Emmanuel Macron of the La République En Marche! Party and Marine Le Pen of the National Rally Party. Macron is the market’s favourite to reclaim the presidency of France.

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Market Pair Changes

As a result of the EU considering a ban on Russian oil, BTCUSD became one of the assets that weakened last week, falling 6.58%, while USOUSD (WTI) became the strongest, rising 8.92%.

The US Indices also continued to decline from last week, with the DJ30 down by 0.69% from its opening price, followed by strong declines from the SP500, which fell 2.24%. The NAS100 also dropped 3.30%.

The USD Index (USDX) increased by 0.63%, forcing several major currencies against the USD to decline. EURUSD fell 1.02%, while the JPY decreased as indicated by a 1.92% increase of the USDJPY.

(All data taken from MT4 VT Markets)

Technical Analysis

USD Index

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The USD Index (USDX) is attempting to break over resistance at 100.57, with an open gap on Monday. If the USD Index’s momentum continues, the next potential resistance level is at 100.99.

On the Weekly and H4 timeframes, the trend on USDX is particularly strong, implying that the price may continue to strengthen.

Resistance 100.57, 100.99

Support 100.275


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Gold rose last week and closed within the $1965–$1993 resistance zone.

This week, there is little movement in the statistics, but we will closely monitor the Russia-Ukraine situation. We will also look into any impact following the speech from Fed Chair Powell.

If there are no notable surprises, we can expect the trade price to fall within the $1965–$1993 range on the weekly timeframe, with a possible break upwards, bringing the price closer to the H4 resistance at the $2002 level.

Resistance – $1993, $2002

Support – $1965

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