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Weekly Market Analysis: 04 April 2022


What happened in the market last week?

  • Canada data release, GDP 0.2% v 0.1%. 
  • US data release, Core PCE Price Index 0.4% v 0.5%, US Labor Data also released, Non-Farm Employment Change 431K v 750K, Unemployment Rate 3.6%, Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.4 % v 0.1%.
  • The talks between Russia and Ukraine haven’t yet reached a bright spot, even though Russia has taken some troops out of one area.

What to focus on this week?

This week, several significant economic events warrant your attention. The RBA is anticipated to maintain its rate-holding policy on Tuesday, but there is considerable speculation that they will boost rates. If expectations for interest rate hikes do not materialize, the AUD will suffer.

In the United States, the FOMC meeting minutes will be issued. If the minutes contain an aggressive debate about rising interest rates, the USD is likely to rise.

There are critical data points to consider, particularly in Canada. The CAD has strengthened in recent weeks as a result of the effects of rising global oil prices and may continue to strengthen if the results of positive employment data are as expected. The ISM Services PMI will be released in the United States, with a forecast of 58.6 vs. 56.5.

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The Market’s Main Movements in the Last Week

WTI (USOUSD) had a terrible week, falling 10.23% since there are various alternatives to oil amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. After a week of gains, Gold (XAUUSD) plummeted again (down 1.78 per cent).

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been up by 0.57 per cent over the last seven days.

The S&P500 (SP500) was up 0.07 per cent, the Nasdaq (NAS100) was up 0.64 per cent, and the Dow Jones (DJ30) was down 0.13 per cent in the US stock market.

The USD Index fell by 0.27 per cent in the currency market, while some key pairings, such as EURUSD (up 0.57 per cent) and USDJPY (up 0.42 per cent), increased. GBPUSD and AUDUSD both had a difficult week, with AUDUSD dropping by 0.06 per cent and GBPUSD by 0.56 per cent.

(Data taken from MT4 VT Markets).

Technical Analysis

USD Index

The USD Index displayed relatively high but restricted volatility last week inside the consolidative zone.

On a weekly timeframe, we can see that the USD Index remains within the range of 97.208–97.682 and 99.289–99.576.

Meanwhile, on the H4 timeframe, we can see that the USD Index is attempting to decline and has approached the support area of 97.75 – 97.85, with resistance remaining at 98.888 – 98.951 and a weekly starting range that is relatively tight at 98.446 – 98.591.

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Gold also moved inside the consolidative range last week, even though various factors prompted Gold to attempt to penetrate the support area.

On a weekly timeframe, Gold attempted to penetrate the support area between $1891 and $1916 but was unable to do so and closed above $1916. Weekly resistance remains between $1965 and $1993.

Meanwhile, on the H4 timeframe, support is located at $1917 and $1907, while resistance is at $1941 and $1949.

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